How do you know if you’ve made a good decision? Many people’s responses to that question include: “When the end result is positive. “Why do we, as a society, romanticise the outcomes of our actions? ‘ When something or someone succeeds, they are praised. All you have to do is look at the number of articles and books dedicated to successful individuals. That is, to a certain extent, a given. The problem is, however, that it is also deceptive in nature. It’s easy for us to overlook cases that didn’t end in success. When we examine failure, we are quick to point out the reasons for it. In retrospect, we can all say that mistakes were inevitable. Then why do we still make decisions that we later regret if avoiding mistakes is so simple?
Consider the Titanic. That Southampton-to-New York cruise ship made many costly mistakes, and we all know it now. For example, the Titanic’s lack of lifeboats is well-known. “What happens if all of the lifeboats are deployed?” is a question that must have been asked at some point. Is it possible that we don’t know? Our presence was conspicuously absent. Here’s something else worth knowing. For six hours, the Titanic was put through its paces without a full crew. As soon as that was done, they set sail for New York. Someone undoubtedly said, “Shouldn’t we try this thing out more before we bring passengers on board?”. Maybe not, then. Nevertheless, there’s a catch. The Titanic disaster was a disaster that no one wanted to happen. What’s more, no one saw it coming… Until the end of time.
Fyodor Dostoevsky famously said, A few decades before all those innocent people died, he said: “As soon as something goes wrong, it all looks ridiculous. “Decisions, both good and bad. If you look at success, it’s easy to say that good judgement led to it. But here’s the catch—also it’s true the other way around. Bad decisions aren’t always to blame for failure. However, this is what the vast majority of historians do. When you think about it, failure is always obvious in retrospect. At the time, the Titanic’s owners and operators probably thought they were making the best decisions possible. They may have had many regrets after the fact. However, I do not believe that the outcome is influenced by good or bad decisions. The author of Seeking Wisdom, Peter Bevelin, says it this way: “It is possible for good decisions to result in bad outcomes, and vice versa.”
In reality, you can’t know what will happen in the future. Even the worst-case scenarios can have a silver lining. Because of this, I think it’s pointless for people to claim that they can teach you how to make “good” decisions…. Basically, there isn’t one. If you ask anyone who has had a lot of failures, they will tell you that.
Rather than focusing on the end result, focus on the process. A mental model is a way of thinking about how things actually work in the real world. It’s how you approach a subject. It is common for us to jump right into discussing possible outcomes without considering our framework when making decisions. The question we ask ourselves is, “What will happen if we do this?”
Your method is incomprehensible because you don’t question your decision-making process. You’re only concerned with the end result. However, have you thought about what specific mental models (thinking frameworks) you can use to make your choice? We tend to rush through the decision-making process instead of taking our time. That could be because they don’t have the time, resources, or knowledge to do so—it doesn’t matter! There is no justification for skipping the decision-making process, no matter what the reason may be. Simply because there’s no other way to become a bad decision-maker.
Focus on how thorough your decision-making process is instead of how successful your choices are. To be clear, you don’t have to be an expert on mental models—I’m not one of them! It’s common for pseudo-intellectuals to spend more time talking about mental models than they do actually using them to accomplish anything of value in the real world. They’re just averse to letting their imaginations run wild. However, as you and I both know, knowledge is useless if it is not put into practice.
Because of this, I recommend reading only the following two books:
Peter Bevelin’s book, Seeking Wisdom, examines Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett’s mental models.
Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness” is one of my favourite models of thought. It aids comprehension of the role played by chance in determining outcomes.
As long as there are mental models, we will never be able to accurately predict the future. We can, however, make decisions that we will not regret. We can always say we did the right thing by simply focusing on the thought process. If you want to avoid regret no matter what the outcome is, you have to do this: “What should I do? “It’s obvious that we should never dwell on our follies. A lesson can be learned from any misstep. Another kind of regret, on the other hand, can lead to death. Regret stems from inaction. With my grandmother, I’ve witnessed this first-hand. She succumbed to her own grief at the end of her life. Those tears were tears of regret for the things she didn’t do. Regardless of what we do, we all have to deal with hardships in life. As Jim Rohn once said: “But there is a difference in suffering. “When it comes to pain, we all have two options: discipline or regret or disappointment.
Accomplishment. Increasing the quality of your life and the quality of your connections. Book writing. Creating a company. It’s excruciating. Things worth having in life necessitate a significant investment of time, effort, and self-sacrifice. But there’s something else that’s unbearable: Inaction, disappointment, and laziness are all causes of regret. Which kind of pain is the most excruciating? You have the final say.
